0 items USD 0.00Global Mining Industry Update and Analysis
Amid COVID-19 pandemic the mining industry has taken steps to respond quickly to safeguard the health of its personnel and surrounding communities. 听Restrictions have been imposed in places on mining operations, including full/partial lockdowns, temporary suspensions, and curtailing the output. We have quoted a few figures from our reports to present the upcoming production trend in the mining sector.
Copper Mining Trends
Global copper production in 2020 is expected to be impacted by the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. After declining by 1.9% in 2019 to 20.6 million tonnes (Mt) due to lower ore grades and production disruptions, copper production was initially expected to grow by 3.4% in 2020 due to an anticipated increase in production from Chile, China, and Peru.听
However, with falling demand and ongoing disruption to mining activities due to lockdowns, this has been reduced to just 1.9% - with a production of 21Mt in 2020. The ongoing disruptions will be offset by production from the Cobre Panama and Grasberg mines.
听
听
Australian copper mine production is estimated to have reached 938.7kt in 2019, up by 2.8% over 2018, owing to higher production at BHP's Olympic Dam Mine, which increased from 147kt in 2018 to 181kt in 2019 owing to planned preparatory work in the prior period related to the refinery crane replacement.听
听
The commencement of new projects in that same year, including the Monty Copper-Gold, Woodlawn, and Carrapateena, further boosted supply in that year. Production is expected to grow at a forecast-period CAGR of 4.5% to reach 1.1Mt in 2023, backed by the commencement of the Cadia expansion 1 project, which has an annual copper mine production capacity of 78kt in 2023.
Peru by producing 2.4 million tonnes (Mt) of copper in 2018 stood as the world's second-largest producer. The production volume fell marginally by 0.4% versus 2017, due to localized slippage and maintenance shutdown which led to a 15% decline in copper output at the Las Bambas mine. However, in 2019, the production is expected to increase by 2.6% to reach 2,501Kt, backed by higher production from the Southern Peru Copper Corporation coupled with the commencement of its new Toquepala concentrator, with a 100Kt copper capacity.
听
Copper production in Chile is estimated to have declined by 1.4% to 5.75Mt in 2019. Lower ore grades and production disruptions were the key factors that affected the country鈥檚 overall output in that year. Production in 2020 is also expected to remain flat at 5.76Mt, lower ore grades will be of major concern for Chilean miners.
Iron Ore听Mining Trends
India's iron ore production is estimated to have risen by 14.2% in 2019, to reach 234,9Mt, owning to the acceleration in mine production for several non-captive mines - especially from merchant miners due to the expiration of leases in March this year. Production in 2020 is expected to decline to 205.7MTt; a delay in mineral auctions in Odisha, coupled with regulatory approvals, will be of major concern for Indian miners.
Production over the forecast period is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2%, to reach 271.2Mt in 2024. This growth can be attributed to the commencement of new projects and the expansion of existing ones, such as the Kumaraswamy mine, the Daitari, and Gandhamardhan mines and the Chiria iron ore mine.
听
China鈥檚 iron ore production is the fifth-largest globally and is forecast to decline by 2% in 2020 to 114.2Mt due to the impact of COVID-19. Between January and February, the operating rates at private iron ore mines declined from 34.9% to 29.6% and overall China鈥檚 iron ore production declined by 4.6% year-on year. During the first quarter of 2020 several mines and plants had to temporarily cease production activities, deliveries and shipments were either delayed or rescheduled, and there was a shortage of workers, who could not return to mine sites owing to the prolonged Lunar New Year holidays followed by transportation issues due to lockdown.
As a result of the slowdown in domestic production, iron ore imports grew by 1.5% year-on-year in January and February 2020 to reach 176.8Mt. However, purchases accumulated at ports due to transportation challenges owing to the lockdown and by 7 February inventory at ports had reached a three-month high of 131.1Mt. Looking ahead, production is expected to post a forecast period (2020-2024) CAGR of 1.0%, to reach 118.8Mt in 2024. Growth will be relatively flat due to the elimination of inefficient steel capacity, as part of the three-year 鈥淏lue Sky鈥� environmental initiative, which runs through 2020.
Coal Mining Trends
Global coal production was estimated to have reached 8.1 billion tonnes (Bnt) in 2019, up by 2.7% over 2018. The increase was driven by production increases from the major producing countries such as China, India, Indonesia, and Australia. These countries together accounted for 69.8% of the total global output. However, production in 2020 is expected to rise only by 0.5% due to disruption caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. With that, thermal coal production is expected to grow by 0.5% to 7.05Bnt, while metallurgical coal production is forecast to be flat at 1.1Bnt.
India is the world's third-largest producer of coal, after China and the US. In 2018, the country's production increased by 7.3% to 765.1 million tonnes (Mt) owing to increased output from Coal India Ltd, which supplies around 80% of the country's total. In that same year, the production of thermal and metallurgical coal was 714.4Mt and 50.7Mt respectively. Simultaneously, country鈥檚 coal consumption and imports reached 958.9Mt and 227.4Mt respectively. To reduce it's dependency on imports, the Indian government aims to boost domestic supply, India's coal production is expected to grow significantly posting a forecast period (2019-2023) CAGR of 8.7%, to reach 1.1Bnt in 2023.
听
After declining consecutively for two years, Australia's coal production recovered, albeit, by a marginal 0.5% to 562.0Mt in 2018. This was supported by an increase in output from Mount Arthur (1.6%), Goonyella Riverside (8.1%) and Peak Downs coal mines (5%). Further, during the nine months ending September 2019, Glencore鈥檚 coal production rose by 7.5%, mainly due to an increase in the production from the Prodeco mine owing to mine expansion and additions from the 2018 acquisition of HVO and Hail Creek. Simultaneously, Australia, by exporting 382.2Mt of coal, stood as the world鈥檚 largest exporter. Mineral resources in Australia are owned by the federal, state or territory governments, rather than private individuals.
听
Related Industry Articles
1.听Top Mining Equipment Manufacturers in World and 麻豆原创 Insight
Email a colleague
Printer version
Send by email
听
About The Author
Sudeep Chakravarty
